On March 13, 2025, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan and Armenia officially announced the completion of the peace agreement text, confirming its readiness for signing. This day, potentially marking the end of the 33-year Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, could become historic for both countries.
Previously, both sides repeatedly stated that the peace treaty draft was 95% complete, with only two out of the 17 provisions remaining unresolved. The first concerns the commitment of both parties not to deploy third forces, including peacekeeping troops and international civilian monitoring missions, along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The second provision regulates the obligation of Armenia and Azerbaijan to withdraw all mutual lawsuits from international institutions and to refrain from initiating new ones.
Until recently, the Armenian side had expressed willingness to withdraw the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMA) from the border after the completion of its delimitation and demarcation. However, recognizing that this process could take a long time, Armenia sought to maintain the mission’s presence as long as possible, despite Azerbaijan’s negative reaction. Nevertheless, as a result of Baku’s firm stance, Yerevan agreed to the withdrawal of European observers following the signing of the peace agreement. This decision was made by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on March 12, 2025, during a meeting of the country’s Security Council.
“Armenia has agreed that after the peace agreement takes effect, third countries will not deploy their forces along the border,” Pashinyan stated, emphasizing that this provision covers the entire Armenian-Azerbaijani border, not just the demarcated sections.
Regarding the second disputed provision, the Armenian side presented Azerbaijan with the twelfth and final version of the peace treaty text, which Baku did not amend. This contributed to breaking the four-year diplomatic deadlock in the negotiation process.
The announcement of the agreement’s finalization was met with a positive response from the international community. Countries such as France and Germany expressed support for the initiative, urging both sides to sign the document as soon as possible.
However, it is important to note that despite the completion of the treaty draft, it has not yet been initialed. Moreover, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated that the agreement could only be signed if two additional conditions were met. These include the removal of constitutional provisions in Armenia that contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan, as well as a joint appeal by Armenia and Azerbaijan to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) requesting the dissolution of the Minsk Group. These conditions had long been voiced by the Azerbaijani side but were not included in the treaty text itself.
Speaking at the Global Baku Forum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev once again emphasized the key aspects of Azerbaijan’s position in the negotiation process. He pointed out that some European officials portray Armenia as a state striving for peace while ignoring its past actions. In particular, Aliyev recalled the use of the “Iskander-M” missile system by Armenian armed forces during the Second Karabakh War, as well as Armenia’s occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory during the First Karabakh War.
The Azerbaijani leader stressed that Baku could not trust the words of Armenian leadership, highlighting the need for legally binding guarantees. He stated that an important step in this direction should be the removal of all provisions related to territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia’s Constitution.
President Aliyev also expressed the view that the European monitoring mission was, in fact, conducting reconnaissance activities against Baku’s interests. He emphasized that the European Union had allocated significant funds to Armenia for defense purposes and planned further financial injections into this sector.
Thus, Azerbaijan’s position is that the signing of the peace agreement should be accompanied by a strengthening of trust between the parties, rather than being limited to the formalization of agreements. However, Armenia has yet to take steps that would contribute to building such trust.
Despite Prime Minister Pashinyan’s order to develop a new draft Constitution, it remains unclear whether it will exclude references to the Declaration of Independence, which contains provisions related to Azerbaijan’s former Nagorno-Karabakh region. Furthermore, the constitutional revision process is scheduled for completion only in 2026, creating uncertainty in the negotiations.
One of the main obstacles to achieving lasting peace remains Armenia’s ongoing arms buildup. In this regard, it cannot be ruled out that Azerbaijan may put forward an additional demand—the cessation of Armenia’s military capacity expansion—as a condition for signing the peace treaty.
In conclusion, while the text of the peace agreement has been finalized, its signing remains uncertain. Key factors influencing the prospects for peaceful resolution include Armenia’s fulfillment of its declared commitments, the elimination of legal barriers in its legislation, and the cessation of the arms race. Only under conditions of mutual trust and full adherence to obligations by both parties can a sustainable and long-term peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan be achieved.
