Introduction
The visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Astana at the invitation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan to participate in the meeting of the heads of states of Central Asia and the Republic of Azerbaijan marks a significant event in the context of regional cooperation. The primary motivation for increasing interaction with the Central Asian republics is Azerbaijan’s need to adapt to the challenges of the post-oil period and its desire to ensure stable economic development. The growing influence of Central Asia on the global stage, as well as the region’s significant natural and economic resources, make it an important partner for Azerbaijan. In this context, cooperation with Central Asian states takes on particular importance, given their potential role in diversifying export routes and strengthening economic ties.
Central Asia: Strategic Importance and Economic Potential
Central Asia is a region with a population of over 80 million people and an area of 3.882 million square kilometers. This region holds 20% of the world’s uranium reserves, 17.2% of oil reserves, and 7% of natural gas reserves. It ranks 10th in coal production and 19th in electricity generation. The region’s geographical location makes it a strategic bridge between China and other Southeast Asian countries, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, providing an opportunity to control transit routes and international corridors.
Azerbaijan, with its unique location at the crossroads of trade routes and geopolitical influence, plays a key role in realizing these ambitions. The Central Asian republics, now at a new stage of their development, see Azerbaijan as a crucial partner in their aspirations not only to become a transit link between China and Europe but also to develop their export potential. Cooperation with Azerbaijan allows Central Asian countries to leverage its infrastructural and logistical capabilities to strengthen their economies and expand their presence in global markets.
Uzbekistan: A Leader in Green Energy Development
Uzbekistan has significant potential for developing alternative energy sources, as confirmed by data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the agency’s estimates, the country can produce 2,091 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, more than 30 times its current annual electricity needs. This indicates a substantial reserve of opportunities for using solar and wind energy, which could potentially make Uzbekistan a major player in green energy.
Uzbekistan’s climate is favorable for the development of solar energy. With 320 sunny days a year, the country has ideal conditions for installing solar panels and generating electricity. Particularly noteworthy are the Surkhandarya, Bukhara, and Kashkadarya regions, where up to 2,058 billion kilowatt-hours of solar energy can be produced. These regions have a high degree of solar radiation, making them suitable for large-scale solar projects.
A United Nations report on green energy development also notes that the northwestern and southwestern areas of Uzbekistan have the potential to produce 9.9 billion kilowatt-hours of wind energy. Given the wind characteristics of these regions, they represent promising sites for the construction of wind power plants.
In the past five years, the President of Uzbekistan has signed 15 decrees aimed at accelerating the development of green energy in the country. These measures have led to the signing of 21 agreements with foreign companies, demonstrating growing international interest in developing renewable energy in Uzbekistan.
Currently, 19 green energy projects are being implemented in Uzbekistan, including the construction of solar power plants with a capacity of 3,977 megawatts and seven wind power plants with a capacity of 3,100 megawatts. These projects have attracted $9 billion in foreign investments, highlighting their importance to the country’s economy.
In the coming months, three wind and four solar power plants are scheduled to be commissioned in various regions of Uzbekistan, including Samarkand, Kattakurgan, Bukhara, Namangan, Tomdin, and Tashkent. These projects will help strengthen the country’s energy infrastructure and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
In 2025, the construction of two wind power plants, each with a capacity of 500 megawatts, is planned in the Peshkun and Gijduvan districts of the Bukhara region. These stations will play a crucial role in ensuring Uzbekistan’s sustainable energy supply.
According to the government’s green energy development program, by 2026, Uzbekistan will commission four wind power plants with a total capacity of 1,600 megawatts, solar power plants with a capacity of 8,000 megawatts, and hydropower plants with a capacity of 868 megawatts. These measures will significantly increase the share of renewable energy in the country’s energy balance, contributing to sustainable development and reducing Uzbekistan’s carbon footprint.
Kazakhstan: Ambitions in Renewable Energy
Kazakhstan is actively developing its alternative energy sector, as evidenced by data from the country’s Ministry of Energy. Currently, Kazakhstan operates 133 enterprises that produce energy from renewable sources. Among them, 48 are wind power plants, 43 are solar, 39 are hydroelectric, and 3 are biogas power plants. The combined capacity of these facilities is 2.5 gigawatts. In the second half of 2023, these plants produced 3.35 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, reflecting the significant contribution of renewable sources to the country’s energy balance.
Kazakhstan’s unique natural conditions make it one of the most promising regions for developing wind energy. According to a report by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the country lies in the wind streams of the Northern Hemisphere, creating enormous opportunities for generating wind energy. UNIDO experts estimate Kazakhstan’s potential wind energy production at 1,820 billion kilowatt-hours per year. This makes wind energy one of the key areas in the country’s energy strategy.
The Kazakh government is already actively working on developing this sector. Specifically, by 2030, it plans to install wind stations with a total capacity of 1 million kilowatt-hours in 46 districts across the country. This project aims to significantly increase the share of wind energy in the country’s overall energy balance, contributing to reducing dependence on fossil fuel sources.
Kazakhstan’s mountainous regions also present significant potential for developing hydropower. In these areas, it is possible to build small hydropower plants with a total capacity of up to 65 billion kilowatt-hours. These stations could become an important element of the country’s sustainable energy sector development, especially in remote and hard-to-reach areas.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s climate, characterized by approximately 3,000 hours of sunshine per year, creates favorable opportunities for the development of solar energy. The country has the potential to produce up to 1 billion gigawatt-hours of solar energy. This opens up significant prospects for further capacity expansion in the renewable energy sector and attracting investments in this area.
Thus, Kazakhstan has significant potential for developing renewable energy sources, and the government is taking active steps to realize this potential.
Turkmenistan: A Gas Giant with Prospects for Transportation to Europe
Turkmenistan, with the fourth-largest natural gas reserves in the world, plays a key role in the energy balance of Central Asia and has significant potential for strengthening energy cooperation in the region. Amid growing demand for energy resources in Europe and the need to diversify supplies, Turkmenistan is becoming an important player in ensuring energy security not only regionally but also globally.
Turkmenistan holds some of the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, estimated at over 19.5 trillion cubic meters. Major gas fields such as Galkynysh, South Iolotan-Osman, and Dauletabad provide the country with a strategic advantage in natural gas exports. Notably, the Galkynysh field, one of the largest in the world, holds about 27 trillion cubic meters of gas. This gives Turkmenistan the potential to become a major supplier of natural gas to the global market.
Given the current geopolitical situation and the energy crisis in Europe, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are actively negotiating the development of gas transportation routes to Europe. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, planned to be laid along the Caspian Sea’s seabed, will be a key element of this strategy. This project envisions connecting Turkmen gas fields with Azerbaijan’s gas infrastructure, including the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which then links to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), ensuring the supply of Turkmen gas to the European market.
The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project has several advantages. First, it will allow Turkmenistan to diversify its export routes, which is especially important given the current export routes’ limitations, primarily directed towards China. Second, this project will enhance Europe’s energy security by providing access to new gas sources, reducing dependence on traditional suppliers.
However, the project faces several challenges, including the technical and environmental difficulties of laying the pipeline along the Caspian Sea’s seabed and the need to align the interests of all Caspian littoral states. Nevertheless, the political will demonstrated by Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, along with the project’s support from the European Union, creates prerequisites for its successful implementation.
Turkmenistan’s inclusion in transit routes through Azerbaijan and its participation in natural gas supply projects to Europe underscore the strategic importance of this cooperation for the entire region. Turkmenistan has every chance to become one of the key gas suppliers to Europe, which will not only strengthen its economic position but also enhance its geopolitical significance. Thus, Turkmenistan, along with Azerbaijan, can play an important role in shaping a new energy architecture that meets the interests of both Central Asia and Europe.
Cooperation Between Central Asia and Azerbaijan: Transit and Alternative Energy
Given the aforementioned factors, it is safe to say that cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan goes far beyond transit shipments. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, is already actively functioning, providing cargo delivery from Central Asia to Europe via Azerbaijan. However, the next important stage of this cooperation will be ensuring the export of alternative energy produced in the Central Asian republics to Europe, using Azerbaijan as a key transit hub.
Azerbaijan will once again find itself at the center of transit routes, now for the export of electricity to Eastern Europe across the Black Sea. This project has already attracted the attention of major international institutions. For example, the European Union allocated $2.5 million for the project’s feasibility study, indicating its importance for Europe’s energy security. The World Bank, in turn, expressed readiness to allocate $75 million for the implementation of this ambitious project, underscoring its importance on the global stage.
Thus, Azerbaijan’s role in the region is becoming even more strategic. The country not only participates in transporting goods from Central Asia via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway but also becomes an important transit link for the transportation of alternative energy produced in Central Asia to Europe. In this context, the policy of the President of Azerbaijan, aimed at expanding cooperation with Central Asian states, aligns with the country’s national interests, contributes to the development of the national economy, and prepares for the transition to the post-oil period. Strategic partnership with Central Asia not only strengthens Azerbaijan’s position on the international stage but also creates new opportunities for economic growth and sustainable development in the long term.
