Losing Control in the Age of Exponential Growth: What Can We Do?

From ancient myths to modern science, humanity’s tendency to overlook warnings—whether from legends like Cassandra or from pandemic predictions—shows how exponential growth and misinformation can spiral out of control with dire consequences.

Yalchin Islamzade
Yalchin Islamzade
Image: AI

Humans have always had a tendency to create myths. Myths accompany every sphere of human activity and remain in the collective memory of generations, as the ideas conveyed through them are more easily understood and remembered. One such myth is connected to the game of chess. The king was so enchanted by the new game that he decided to reward its inventor. Initially, the inventor’s request seemed modest: one grain of rice for the first square on the chessboard, two for the second, four for the third, and so on until the 64th square. However, the king soon realized that it would be impossible to fulfill this request, as the total amount of rice would exceed all available supplies.

What would have happened if the king had fulfilled the inventor’s request? The total amount of rice on all the squares of the chessboard would have reached 18 quintillion grains. To put this in perspective, with an average weight of one grain of rice being about 30 milligrams, the total mass of rice would have amounted to 540 billion tons. This is an astonishing figure, both by the standards of that time and today. For comparison, the global population, which currently stands at around eight billion people, consumes approximately 700 million tons of rice per year. Starting with a single modest grain, exponential growth can reach staggering proportions if given enough time.

Changes that initially seem insignificant can grow to such an extent that they become difficult to control. In the first half of the chessboard (the first 32 squares), about 140 tons of rice accumulate — an amount that is still conceivable and manageable. This is roughly the equivalent of the harvest from 25 hectares of rice fields. However, in the second half, as noted by futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil with his term “the second half of the chessboard,” exponential growth begins to spiral out of control and starts to have a profound impact on processes.

Exponential growth manifests itself in many areas. It took humanity tens of thousands of years to reach a population of one billion after the emergence of Homo sapiens. However, in just two centuries, that number has surged to eight billion. In his book Why the West Rules—for Now, anthropologist Ian Morris introduces the concept of “social development”—the ability of a social group to alter its physical and intellectual environment to achieve tangible results. He creates an index that includes factors such as energy use, organizational capacity, military strength, and access to information technologies. The graph of social development shows a long period of stagnation, followed by a sharp acceleration with the onset of the Industrial Revolution.

Moore’s Law, which states that computing power doubles every 18 months, still holds true today. Although Moore himself predicted that this process would last no more than ten years, the development has continued, and computing power has reached unprecedented heights. The rapid growth has led to the decrease in the cost of microchips, making them an integral part of our everyday lives. Devices that once seemed like luxuries are now accessible to the masses. Moore’s Law not only forecasts the increase in technology’s performance but also its gradual affordability and widespread use.

It may feel like it happened a long time ago, but in reality, it was not so long ago, and we have all become somewhat complacent. If you recall from the coronavirus pandemic, the rise in infection rates followed an exponential curve. Viruses spread just as quickly as computing power grows, and the infection rate mirrors the same exponential trajectory. Understandably, conspiracy thinking never truly fades. Even if the myth of the disease’s nonexistence loses popularity, new theories about who created the virus and why will inevitably emerge. If social media can be seen as a reflection of public sentiment, then by monitoring discussions and everyday conversations even today, it becomes clear that the topic of the past pandemic is still being discussed within the context of a global conspiracy. People speculate that it was a test — to see how quickly people could be mobilized, isolated, and subjected to restrictions. Many view this experience as a global rehearsal for what can be done with modern humanity in a world oversaturated with information and technology. Without a doubt, such theories sound intriguing, but they are not the focus of our conversation.

In Greek mythology, Cassandra, the daughter of Priam, king of Troy, possessed the gift of prophecy, but her warnings were never heeded, even though they always came true. She warned of the fall of Troy and tried to convince the city’s inhabitants that Greek soldiers were hiding inside the Trojan horse, but her warnings were ignored.

An ancient Chinese legend tells of three brothers who were all doctors. The youngest, famous throughout the kingdom, treated advanced diseases using surgery and dramatic interventions. However, he acknowledged that his elder brothers were more skilled. The eldest prevented illnesses from developing through lifestyle advice, though he remained unknown outside their village. The middle brother treated early-stage illnesses and was moderately known. Despite his fame, the youngest brother believed true expertise lay in prevention.

In today’s world, filled with myths and conspiracy theories, science resembles Cassandra. Despite its ability to predict the future, its warnings are often ignored. In October 2007, the journal Clinical Microbiology Reviews published an article analyzing the 2003 SARS outbreak in southern China. Based on 434 sources, the article concluded: “Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination, which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.”

In essence, the article stated: “You can predict Thursday by looking at Wednesday.” Those who did not take science’s warnings seriously could have prevented disaster if they had acted in time. Germany, by listening to scientific recommendations and taking the reports from the Robert Koch Institute seriously, was able to navigate the crisis with minimal losses and panic.

Myths in art are often harmless. Even in science, they can be useful for popularization, such as the story of Galileo supposedly declaring, “And yet it moves” after his trial by the Inquisition. However, problems arise when myths are taken as truth. As Ian Morris pointed out, when societies start relying on myths rather than facts, they lose control over processes and may face catastrophic consequences.

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