At a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed with Moldovan President Maia Sandu the issue of transiting gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. Zelensky noted that this issue was previously raised during his meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Ukraine expressed its readiness to utilize its gas transmission system for the delivery of Azerbaijani gas and quickly conclude the necessary agreements if a political consensus is reached.
According to Zelensky, Azerbaijan is capable of supplying up to 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe annually. Ukraine, in turn, is ready to organize the transit in a short time. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine’s infrastructure could be used for gas transportation but ruled out the possibility of transiting Russian gas, adding that such cooperation would benefit both Azerbaijan and gas-dependent countries like Slovakia.
It is worth noting that Ukraine stopped transiting Russian gas through its territory at the beginning of the year, which previously ensured supplies to countries like Moldova, Hungary, and Slovakia. This decision prompted a sharp reaction from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who threatened to block EU support for Ukraine. However, widespread protests in Slovakia are likely to limit the possibility of such threats being carried out.
The issue of supplying Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Ukraine has been under discussion since mid-last year. Previously, until January 1, 2025, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ensured the supply of about 15 billion cubic meters annually. However, at the moment, Azerbaijan does not have sufficient resources to significantly increase its gas exports to Europe. In this context, two potential cooperation scenarios were discussed.
The first scenario involved a swap agreement in which Azerbaijan would deliver Russian gas through the Southern Gas Corridor via Turkey to Europe, while an equivalent volume of Azerbaijani gas would be transported to Europe through Russia and Ukraine.
The second scenario assumed that Russian gas, sold at the border of Ukraine and Russia, would be classified as Azerbaijani through a deal with SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company. After this, it would officially become an Azerbaijani resource and could be freely transported to Europe via Ukraine’s gas transit system.
Neither of the proposed cooperation options has been implemented, as Ukraine has taken a firm stance, completely refusing to transport gas with any direct or indirect connection to Russia. Zelensky has now reiterated Ukraine’s readiness to resume gas transit to Europe but under one condition: the gas must not be Russian.
Currently, Azerbaijan exports about 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe annually. However, with the development of new fields in the Caspian Sea, this volume could increase to 20 billion cubic meters. In 2022, in response to a request from the European Union, Azerbaijan signed an agreement to increase gas supplies to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters annually by 2027.
However, plans to increase exports face challenges. European restrictions on fossil fuel investments and the reluctance of European companies to sign long-term gas supply contracts have made the prospects for expanding supplies increasingly uncertain. Increasing gas production and expanding the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor require massive investments, estimated in the tens of billions of dollars.
In this regard, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has made it clear that without guarantees of long-term cooperation with the EU, his country is not ready to invest such significant funds into a project aimed at meeting European needs. Aliyev also criticized the European Union for its inconsistency and contradictory stance on the issue.
Regarding Zelensky’s recent statement about the potential transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe, this process is possible only under two conditions: either the gas enters Ukraine’s gas transit system via Russian territory, or it is facilitated through a swap agreement between Russia and Azerbaijan. However, Kyiv categorically excludes the second option.
Technically, Azerbaijan does have the capability to transport gas to Ukraine via Russian territory. A pipeline connecting Russia and Azerbaijan, built during Soviet times, could be converted to reverse mode, allowing up to 2 billion cubic meters of gas to be supplied annually. Moreover, upgrading this infrastructure could significantly increase supply volumes.
However, a key issue arises here: Russia plans to use the pipeline to export gas to Iran through Azerbaijan. Initially, this would involve deliveries of up to 2 billion cubic meters annually, with the potential to increase to 55 billion cubic meters. This matter was discussed on January 17 during Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Moscow.
At the same time, due to the lack of necessary infrastructure, the transportation of Russian gas through Azerbaijan to Iran and Azerbaijani gas through Russia to Ukraine is currently technically impossible. Building new infrastructure would require enormous investments, amounting to billions of dollars, and significant time.
Thus, the hypothetical possibility of transiting Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe depends more on the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia than on Kyiv’s position. Ukraine, while expressing readiness to act as a transit country, essentially performs the simplest part of this complex task. To increase gas exports through the Southern Gas Corridor or routes passing through Russia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan needs to reach an agreement with Russia.
The key question remains whether Russia is willing to limit itself to merely serving as a transit country for Azerbaijani gas being delivered to Europe via Ukraine.
To recall, in 2019, Gazprom held nearly half of Europe’s gas market, exporting around 200 billion cubic meters annually. However, after the cessation of transit through Ukraine, Gazprom’s only remaining route for supplying Europe is the TurkStream pipeline, running through the Black Sea and Turkey, with an annual capacity of about 17.5 billion cubic meters. As a result, Russia’s current share of the European gas market is only slightly larger than Azerbaijan’s.
