Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed the creation of an “indivisible security space” in Central Asia. At first glance, this idea might seem viable, but in practice, its implementation raises serious questions. These questions indicate that the region is not yet ready for the formation of a fully-fledged defense alliance.
In his speech, Tokayev emphasized the need for cooperation in defense policy and security against the backdrop of the complex military-political situation in the region. He suggested developing a “catalog of security risks” for Central Asia and measures to prevent them. However, details about the content of this catalog and the specific threats to the region remain unclear.
The creation of a defense alliance requires certain conditions to be met, which are currently unmet. First, unresolved conflicts between Central Asian countries hinder their unification. For example, armed clashes continue to erupt on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Issues related to border, customs, and water disputes between these countries remain unresolved, casting doubt on the possibility of creating a common defense space.
Second, there is no unified stance on key issues in the region. For instance, Central Asian states have differing attitudes toward the Taliban government in Afghanistan and varying levels of involvement in international military blocs, such as the CSTO. While some countries are rearming their militaries, they do so at different paces and scales, further complicating the creation of a unified defense alliance.
Moreover, the countries in the region have different foreign policy courses and varying perspectives on who is a friend and who is a foe. These differences make the creation of a unified defense bloc nearly impossible, as there is no consensus on key security issues.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Central Asia is a zone of interest for various external powers, such as Russia, China, the United States, Turkey, the European Union, and Japan. This international activity creates additional risks for the region, and the proposal to create a military alliance may only amplify these risks.
Most Central Asian states are heavily dependent on Russia in terms of security and economy. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are members of the CSTO, and Russian military bases are located in the latter two countries. This indicates that Russia’s role in ensuring the region’s security remains significant, and the creation of an alternative defense alliance could lead to destabilization.
Central Asia is also closely tied to China both economically and militarily. At the same time, the West has intensified its efforts to engage the region, creating new formats of cooperation. However, distancing from Russia and China could exacerbate the military-political situation in the region and lead to the loss of critical export markets.
In this context, the creation of a defense alliance requires, first and foremost, an increase in the level of economic, energy, transport, political, diplomatic, and military-technical integration among Central Asian countries. Until this is achieved, the idea of creating a unified defense space will remain theoretical and could lead to increased risks for regional security.
Additionally, the leaders of Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, are striving to weaken the influence of Russia and China in the region, which could pose additional challenges. While the desire for independence is natural, it should not come at the expense of security and stability. In this context, Uzbekistan serves as an example, pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy without joining military alliances like the CSTO and EAEU.
At this stage, it is more beneficial for Central Asia to cooperate with Russia and China on defense and security issues than to orient itself toward the West, which could lead to heightened contradictions. However, close cooperation with non-Western allies might be perceived as participation in an anti-Western coalition, which also carries risks.
Given the lack of cohesion in economic, political, and military-technical terms, Central Asia can develop and assert its own conditions in international relations through participation in transport and communication projects, such as China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and the international transport corridor “North-South.” However, the full realization of these projects is possible only if security in the region is ensured.
Thus, the creation of a defense alliance in the format of Central Asian countries at this stage seems premature. A more reasonable step would be to strengthen the existing security architecture, cooperate with traditional partners, and gradually create the conditions for the formation of a unified defense space.
The prospect of creating a military alliance within the Turkic world can also be considered, although this idea may be perceived as participation in an anti-Western coalition. However, the participation of all Central Asian countries in such an alliance seems unlikely, given their different foreign policy positions and interests.
It is possible that rumors of a military alliance between Russia and China, if confirmed, could further change the balance of power in the region, making Central Asia a participant in this alliance. However, at the moment, any assumptions about this remain hypothetical and require further study.
Thus, since the necessary conditions for creating a defense alliance are not yet present in Central Asia, the region should focus on strengthening existing security mechanisms and cooperating with traditional partners to minimize risks and avoid destabilization.
