After a long period of strategic pause, the United States is once again signaling its return to the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Since mid-2025, a series of visits by representatives of Donald Trump’s team has demonstrated Washington’s intention to restore the political and diplomatic leverage it lost over the past decade.
This renewed activity is not coincidental. Washington recognizes that the absence of a coherent strategy in the post-Soviet region created a vacuum quickly filled by Moscow and Beijing. America’s return is thus an attempt to build a new model of engagement — one based not on unilateral dominance but on pragmatic partnership.
The Biden era left behind a sense of fatigue and inertia. Washington limited itself to declarative statements while other centers of power actively strengthened their infrastructural and economic presence. Political stagnation, especially since 2008, effectively removed the United States from the list of key coordinators of regional processes.
Now Donald Trump is betting on revising this model. His team seeks to restore confidence in American mediation and give U.S. policy in Eurasia a long-term foundation. One symbolic step in this direction could be a reassessment of Amendment 907, which for decades hindered the development of a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan. Its repeal would open the way to a more balanced framework of cooperation.
For the countries of Central Asia, the resurgence of American engagement is not viewed as a threat. On the contrary, it offers new opportunities for multi-vector diplomacy. The modern states of the region conduct their foreign relations on the principle of flexibility — avoiding rigid alignment with any single power.
This approach strengthens their sovereignty and enables diversification of external economic ties. China, despite its firm foothold in energy and infrastructure, is now forced to account for the factor of America’s return. For Beijing, this is not a challenge but rather a reminder that its Belt and Road Initiative must operate in a more transparent and competitive environment.
In the South Caucasus, Washington sees an opening. As Russia’s influence wanes, the United States seeks to occupy the vacant niche, focusing on Baku and Yerevan. Georgia — once regarded as the main conduit of Western interests — is gradually receding into the background, giving way to Azerbaijan as the central link in the emerging regional architecture.
Washington views the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia not merely as a local conflict but as an opportunity to demonstrate the United States’ renewed ability to act as an effective mediator in the post-Soviet space. The signing of the Washington Agreements on August 8, 2025, marked the starting point of this new approach.
Armenia, despite its declared readiness for peace, continues to balance between external pressure and internal instability. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan acts pragmatically, compelled to adapt to the conditions of regional transformation. The restoration of transport routes and the removal of barriers have become inevitable stages of this process.
Overall, the region is entering an era of systemic restructuring. The United States is re-entering the game; Russia is recalibrating its traditional instruments of influence; China maintains economic resilience; and the nations of the South Caucasus and Central Asia are turning external competition into a resource for development. Multipolarity is becoming a reality — not a theoretical concept but a functioning mechanism of the new Eurasian security system, in which Washington seeks to secure its place as one of the key architects.
