What is Armenia’s Path to Salvation?

Armenia stands at a crossroads, facing uncertainty amid geopolitical shifts. As ties with the West deepen and traditional alliances wane, societal polarization grows. While Western integration offers modernization prospects, challenges like energy dependency and regional tensions persist. To overcome isolation, Armenia must prioritize dialogue, collaboration, and pragmatic engagement, transforming historical grievances into opportunities for sustainable development and regional stability.

Caspian - Alpine Team
Caspian - Alpine Team
Republic Square of Yerevan. Yerevan, Armenia / Foto: Vyacheslav Argenberg / Source: Wikimedia Commons

The state of uncertainty can characterize not only physical conditions but also social, political, and moral dimensions. Such a state emerges when old reference points lose their relevance, and new ones have yet to form. In the political context, this phenomenon is evident in modern Armenia, which is actively striving to strengthen ties with the European Union. Simultaneously, Yerevan has effectively suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and shown diminished interest in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Armenian society today is deeply polarized. One segment of the population welcomes the shift toward the West, seeing it as an opportunity for modernization and economic growth. Another faction expresses dissatisfaction, criticizing the severance of traditional ties, including those with Russia. In recent years, Russia has become the subject of criticism, with its policies being linked to Armenia’s failures in various spheres. Particular attention has been paid to the loss of control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the lack of active support from the CSTO.

There is a prevailing notion that Armenia’s domestic politics and economic conditions lack the resilience needed to ensure complete independence. This often results in accusations directed at external partners, including Russia. However, strategic planning and decision-making ultimately remain Armenia’s responsibility. It is crucial to emphasize that internal challenges require systemic solutions, and the search for scapegoats among foreign players only distracts from the pressing need for reform.

Some analysts argue that shifting toward a Western developmental model may not meet Armenia’s expectations. While European institutions offer support, the extent of their engagement in the event of serious crises remains uncertain. One argument for maintaining a partnership with Russia lies in access to affordable energy resources and export markets. Whether the West can compensate for these economic advantages is still unclear.

To attract external stakeholders to the region, Armenia frequently highlights threats from Azerbaijan. However, this approach has not yielded sustainable results. Under current circumstances, Armenia must focus on identifying practical paths to stability through pragmatic engagement with its neighbors — Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Continued confrontation with neighbors is futile: the combined population of Turkey and Azerbaijan exceeds 90 million, and their economic influence cannot be ignored. Including Azerbaijani minorities in Georgia and Iran, Armenia finds itself surrounded by Turkic-speaking populations totaling 110–120 million people.

The example of Georgia demonstrates how cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan can serve as a growth driver. Participation in various energy and logistics projects has enabled Georgia to strengthen its economy and security. By adapting this approach, Armenia could emerge from international isolation and lay the groundwork for development. This is especially important as Armenia faces challenges regarding its historical narrative on the international stage. Historical conflicts and their repercussions continue to significantly influence the country’s domestic and foreign policy.

Attempts to remain an isolated island, fueled by historical grievances and myths, lead nowhere. The only viable alternative is to pursue dialogue and collaboration. This path would grant Armenia access to important regional initiatives, improve living standards, and reduce military expenditures, allowing resources to be redirected toward the country’s development.

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