Armenia is actively debating the prospects of joining the European Union. On January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a draft law to initiate the process of EU accession, reflecting the country’s aspiration to deepen its relations with Europe. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan noted that the accession process would not be swift and would require a referendum to secure public approval. He emphasized the need to develop a joint roadmap with the EU to implement this initiative.
At the same time, the Kremlin expressed concerns about this move. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president’s press secretary, stated that Armenia cannot simultaneously be a member of both the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union, stressing the necessity of choosing between these two integration blocs. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk echoed this sentiment, asserting that the EAEU and EU are incompatible entities. He pointed out that both unions involve the elimination of customs borders and the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor, making their coexistence impossible. Consequently, the draft law to start the EU accession process forces Armenia to choose between these two integration models.
Indeed, Armenia’s ambition to integrate with the EU will inevitably impact all aspects of its economy and society. Should Armenia exit the EAEU, its products would lose duty-free access to Russian and other member states’ markets. This would alter tariff regulations and end preferential conditions for Armenian citizens residing and working in Russia and other EAEU countries.
Armenia’s potential withdrawal from the EAEU would also halt its participation in planned projects within the bloc, such as the creation of a unified market for petroleum products and energy resources. Given the Armenian economy’s heavy reliance on Russian investments, supplies, and markets, such a move would create severe economic challenges. The EU is unlikely to compensate for these lost benefits, particularly since Armenia lacks a direct border with EU countries. Logistical hurdles and high transportation costs would diminish the competitiveness of Armenian goods.
In the European market, the demand for Armenian products, including brandy, wine, and agricultural goods, is limited. Even partial adaptation to EU standards would leave Armenia’s share of this market minimal. Meanwhile, leaving the EAEU would immediately harm the country’s agriculture and industry. Russia and other EAEU states could easily replace Armenian goods with alternatives from Azerbaijan, Iran, or other countries.
Cooperation with the EAEU has provided Armenia with stability and economic growth in recent years, creating jobs and fostering industrial development. Losing this collaboration could lead to reduced production and diminished access to technology and markets. Conversely, integration with the EU carries significant risks given the current economic realities. EU member states face challenges such as high energy costs, declining industrial competitiveness, and agricultural degradation.
As a landlocked country with limited resources, Armenia is unlikely to become a fully integrated EU member. However, the EU’s portrayal as an “ideal destination” continues to influence public opinion. It is essential to note that the economic and social challenges faced by countries that have already joined the EU, such as the Baltic states, highlight the difficulties of adapting to new conditions.
Exiting the EAEU would also jeopardize Armenia’s role as a transit hub for supplies to Russia. Instead of fostering economic growth, the country might face stagnation, reduced trade, and declining investment attractiveness. Industrial development, which holds potential only within the EAEU framework, would become almost impossible.
Conclusion
The prospect of Armenia joining the EU is a complex and multifaceted process that affects not only the country’s domestic politics and economy but also its foreign relations. Choosing between integration with the EU and maintaining EAEU membership requires a thorough analysis of the potential consequences for both the national economy and the social well-being of citizens. It is vital to recognize that while EU integration may offer certain political and institutional benefits, the economic realities present significant risks. Losing preferential access to EAEU markets and a key role in trade and transit networks could undermine Armenia’s economic stability.
Ultimately, the success of any integration project depends on a comprehensive approach that includes broad public discussion, economic adaptation, and carefully planned steps to mitigate risks. For Armenia, it is critically important to consider its national interests and the long-term consequences of its decisions, maintaining a balance between geopolitical aspirations and economic pragmatism.
