The upward revision of global energy price forecasts is shaping a fundamentally new macroeconomic trajectory for hydrocarbon-exporting countries in Eurasia. In this context, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are emerging as key beneficiaries of the evolving price cycle.
According to an analytical report by the Dutch financial group ING, the updated price scenario creates conditions for a notable strengthening of Azerbaijan’s external and fiscal positions in the short term. In particular, the current account surplus is projected to reach 8–9% of GDP in 2026, while the fiscal surplus is expected to stand at 4.0–4.5% of GDP. These figures point to a substantial expansion in export revenues and increased foreign currency inflows amid favorable market conditions.
A key driver of this trend is Azerbaijan’s growing role as a supplier of energy resources to external markets. Elevated oil prices not only boost nominal export earnings but also enhance balance-of-payments resilience, creating additional space for reserve accumulation and more flexible fiscal policy. In the context of limited economic diversification, the hydrocarbon sector continues to serve as the primary anchor of macroeconomic stability.
At the same time, Kazakhstan—sharing a similar export profile—also benefits from the current price dynamics. However, analysts note that the positive impact in its case may be more constrained. This is due to institutional and fiscal factors, including reliance on transfers from sovereign funds and potential declines in dividend revenues, which partially offset the gains from higher commodity prices.
The report also highlights associated macroeconomic risks. Rising global prices for energy and other commodities are intensifying inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent segments. Under these conditions, central banks across the region face the challenge of balancing price stability with the need to sustain economic growth, implying a more cautious and calibrated monetary policy stance.
Overall, the emerging price cycle is reinforcing Azerbaijan’s short-term macroeconomic resilience, primarily through stronger external balances and an improved fiscal position. However, in the medium term, a structural challenge remains in the form of high dependence on hydrocarbon exports, underscoring the need for deeper economic diversification and the development of non-resource growth drivers.
