Since the tragedy in December 2024, which claimed the lives of 38 people aboard an Azerbaijani passenger plane, Moscow has yet to issue an official response. This demonstrative silence has become a political marker of a deeper issue — Russia’s refusal to accept responsibility even in cases that clearly affect the lives of civilians.
The militaristic regime that has been consolidating in Russia in recent years leaves no room for acknowledging mistakes. In this system, public acceptance of fault is interpreted as a sign of weakness — and therefore deemed unacceptable in the logic of internal political stability. This explains why even a gesture of sympathy has been replaced by a string of bizarre and absurd explanations involving technical malfunctions and birds.
Yet the fact remains: the passenger plane was struck by an air defense system, managed to miraculously reach Kazakhstan, and its crew performed the impossible, saving dozens of lives. Even if Russia does not formally recognize its involvement, the political consequences of its silence are already evident — a sharp deterioration in relations with Azerbaijan, growing distrust, intensified anti-propaganda sentiment within Azerbaijani society, and diplomatic isolation against the backdrop of increasingly explicit support for Baku from its allies.
Azerbaijan’s intention to initiate international legal proceedings over the crash is a logical step in the pursuit of justice — and a way to formally anchor the balance of power in the international legal sphere. Even if Russia ignores a court ruling, the mere existence of such a judgment will serve as a tool of diplomatic and informational pressure. A narrative is already taking shape in which Russia appears as a state that evades responsibility, blatantly violates international law, and disregards the rights of foreign nationals.
In response to Moscow’s actions toward Azerbaijanis on Russian soil — including pressure, arrests, and business seizures — Baku has begun to apply mirror measures. The detention of Russian intelligence operatives in Azerbaijan, operating under diplomatic cover, sent a clear signal that Moscow’s rhetoric may now be met with real consequences.
At the same time, the likelihood of military escalation remains low. Russia is deeply entangled in its campaign in Ukraine, its resources are overstretched, and its influence in the South Caucasus is waning. Pressure on Azerbaijan will likely continue through familiar channels — the Azerbaijani diaspora, economic levers, and intimidation tactics. However, even here, Moscow is running out of tools: Baku’s close ties with Ankara, its active engagement in regional processes, economic resilience, and growing Western support significantly constrain Russia’s maneuvering room.
In this environment, the only effective strategy for Baku is active, proportional, and internationally oriented response. Filing lawsuits in international courts, documenting every episode of pressure, reinforcing its own information strategy, and strengthening ties with allies. Russia must understand: the era of unpunished aggression is over. Every action will carry legal, political, and reputational consequences.
The language of force that the Kremlin so readily employs in its foreign policy can also be understood and applied in relation to Russia itself. Only through a clear, systematic, and proportionate response from the opposite side will Moscow be disabused of the illusion of impunity. This is the only approach that can restore justice for those who perished in the downed aircraft — and help rebuild a regional security architecture where respect for sovereignty and human life becomes an operative principle.
