The current political situation on the European continent is undergoing significant transformations in the field of security. While previously established mechanisms of collective defense, such as NATO, once seemed unshakable, today the European Union is compelled to reassess its strategy and adapt to new challenges. France plays a central role in this process, with its leadership increasingly advocating for a stronger role in European defense policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently outlined ambitious plans, including support for Ukraine, strengthening EU defense initiatives, and even proposing an expansion of France’s nuclear capabilities as a potential tool for Europe’s collective security. However, questions remain about the feasibility of these initiatives, given France’s limited resources and the mixed reception of such statements among other EU member states.
France’s ability to replace the American “nuclear umbrella” with its own remains uncertain. Recently, Paris has faced several challenges, including the loss of access to uranium resources from Niger, which undermines its ability to maintain its nuclear potential at the required level. Additionally, France’s defense-industrial complex is struggling with delays in fulfilling international contracts, missed delivery deadlines, and significant cost overruns on existing agreements.
Beyond nuclear capabilities, the issue of conventional armed forces is of particular importance. With the potential reduction of the U.S. military presence in Europe, key military partners could include countries with strong armies, such as Turkey. Ankara has already signaled its willingness to participate in shaping a new European security system but ties this process to the resumption of its EU accession negotiations.
As the second-largest army in NATO, Turkey is a significant strategic player. However, its involvement in European defense initiatives would require political compromises. So far, EU officials have responded cautiously to such proposals, limiting Turkey’s participation to discussions at defense summits.
One of the challenges complicating Europe’s adaptation to these new realities is the prolonged reduction in military spending after the Cold War. Over the past decades, significant resources have been redirected toward social needs, and defense issues were often considered secondary. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, many European countries reduced their armies and military investments, relying on NATO and, primarily, the United States for security guarantees.
Even amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the budgetary priorities of many EU countries have remained unchanged, making it difficult to respond swiftly to potential threats. During the Cold War, European allies of the U.S. fulfilled their defense commitments by maintaining strong armies and purchasing military equipment. However, by the early 21st century, Europe’s dependence on the American military presence had become evident, and attempts to revive its own defense capabilities have encountered budgetary and political constraints.
Political shifts in the United States, particularly the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency, add further uncertainty to Europe’s strategic outlook. The anticipated reduction of U.S. funding for European security forces EU leaders to urgently revise defense strategies and reallocate budgets. However, this comes with political costs, as increased military spending may lead to cuts in social programs, impacting domestic stability.
Trump has already made it clear that the U.S. does not intend to continue unilaterally financing European defense or covering expenses related to supporting Ukraine. If this policy is implemented, European leaders will have to quickly seek alternative solutions, including increasing military budgets and possibly involving third countries, such as Turkey, in a collective security system.
Under these circumstances, the European Union must not only seek new ways to ensure security but also reconsider its place in the global defense system. The previous model, in which the EU relied on U.S. military support, is becoming increasingly unstable, necessitating the development of new approaches. However, the question remains: can European countries adapt swiftly to this new reality given their political and economic constraints? Europe certainly has options, but the time for their implementation is running out.
