From the Caspian to the Pacific: Azerbaijan and China Forge a New Geopolitical Arc

This article analyzes President Ilham Aliyev’s 2025 visit to China, emphasizing its strategic importance for Azerbaijan–China relations. It explores the geopolitical, economic, and infrastructural implications of the new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, highlighting Azerbaijan’s growing role as a key Eurasian hub within China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the evolving Middle Corridor.

Vusal Guliyev
Vusal Guliyev
Photo: Trend News Agency

The recent state visit of President Ilham Aliyev to the People’s Republic of China from April 22 to 24 was far more than a ceremonial diplomatic gesture; it signified a strategic turning point with profound geopolitical and economic implications for the broader Eurasian region. Occurring against a backdrop of shifting global power dynamics and intensifying regional realignments, the visit elevated bilateral relations to an unprecedented level through the signing of a Joint Statement on the Establishment of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Relations. This marked a formal upgrade in ties, positioning Azerbaijan not only as a key partner in China’s external relations but also as an emerging geopolitical hub in the heart of Eurasia.

The elevation to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signals a decisive broadening and deepening of mutual interests. In Beijing’s lexicon, such a designation is reserved for countries with whom it shares robust political trust, high-level policy coordination, and multifaceted cooperation that may span across sectors such as security, infrastructure, finance, energy, education, culture, and technology. This is a clear departure from transactional engagement and reflects an alignment of long-term visions. For both nations, it is a calculated investment in a future defined by multipolar cooperation and shared development interests.

From Azerbaijan’s perspective, the timing and substance of this strategic alignment with China are particularly significant. Following geopolitical recalibrations in the South Caucasus, especially in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War (2020) and the evolving trilateral dynamics involving Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, Baku has been seeking to diversify its foreign policy, reduce its vulnerability to regional volatility, and strengthen its agency on the global stage. Strengthening ties with China, a rising global superpower with enduring influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, serves multiple objectives: gaining political capital, expanding economic opportunities, and reinforcing Azerbaijan’s position as a reliable transit and energy hub.

At the heart of this strategic partnership lies a shared emphasis on connectivity and infrastructure development. One of the central pillars of the visit was the signing of an agreement on International Multimodal Transport, complemented by a specific framework to jointly develop China-Europe-China Trans-Caspian express routes. Nevertheless, these agreements are transformative. They aim to create seamless logistical links that facilitate the efficient movement of goods between East Asia and Europe via the Middle Corridor, an emerging trade and transportation route that traverses China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and onwards to Europe.

This corridor’s importance is magnified by current geopolitical tensions that have rendered the traditional Northern Route via Russia less reliable and politically contentious, particularly in the context of ongoing Western sanctions. In this landscape, by connecting the Caspian to the Black Sea, and further into Eastern and Southeastern Europe Azerbaijan’s location becomes a strategic linchpin. By integrating deeply into the Middle Corridor in coordination with China, Azerbaijan is not only enhancing its economic relevance but also amplifying its geopolitical leverage as a transit country of choice.

The economic dimension of the visit was equally comprehensive. The agreements reached extend beyond transport to encompass trade facilitation, investment cooperation, and sector-specific development strategies. Particular emphasis was placed on advancing collaboration in high-growth sectors such as renewable energy, digital economy, agriculture, and manufacturing. The creation of an Investment Cooperation Working Group between the two sides institutionalizes this collaboration, aiming to identify and fast-track joint ventures, investment opportunities, and technology transfers.

This development dovetails with Azerbaijan’s broader national agenda of economic modernization and diversification, articulated in its long-term strategies such as Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio-Economic Development. Reducing dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, fostering innovation, and creating green growth drivers are among Baku’s top economic priorities. China’s prowess in green technologies, ranging from solar and wind energy to electric vehicles and smart grids, makes it an ideal partner in Azerbaijan’s green transition. Moreover, cooperation in the digital economy opens pathways for modernizing governance, building digital infrastructure, and expanding e-commerce and fintech sectors in Azerbaijan.

On the Chinese side, the strategic rationale is equally strong. A stable, predictable, and increasingly capable Azerbaijan offers a secure partner in a volatile region. China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been gradually shifting its logistical and strategic weight toward the Middle Corridor as a hedge against overreliance on traditional northern routes. Azerbaijan’s geographic position, robust infrastructure, and political stability make it a natural partner for Beijing’s ambitions to build a Eurasian logistics and production network.

Beyond economics, the visit also underscored deepening diplomatic, multilateral, and cultural ties. Beijing’s strong endorsement of Azerbaijan’s chairmanship of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) demonstrates a shared interest in fostering regional dialogue and non-Western governance frameworks. Azerbaijan’s emphasis on connectivity, digital transformation, and sustainable development within CICA aligns with China’s regional engagement strategy and lends further weight to Baku’s efforts to lead initiatives beyond its immediate neighborhood. This convergence of interests enhances both countries’ influence in shaping regional agendas.

Cultural and people-to-people diplomacy were also prioritized. Strengthening tourism cooperation, enhancing educational exchanges, and introducing mutual visa exemptions are all aimed at cultivating mutual understanding and building long-term soft power bridges. As China’s middle class grows and outbound tourism expands, Azerbaijan is positioning itself as a unique destination for Chinese tourists. Tourism development not only diversifies Azerbaijan’s economy but also fosters a more resilient bilateral relationship grounded in civil society and interpersonal exchange.

Overall, Azerbaijan’s Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China is significant, but it’s crucial to see it as part of a bigger picture. The country’s foreign policy is all about having many irons in the fire to best serve its own interests. So, while ties with China are growing, Azerbaijan is still very much involved with the European Union, Türkiye, Israel, and the wider Turkic world. Each of these relationships has a specific strategic purpose, from selling energy to cooperating on defense and promoting cultural understanding. Azerbaijan stands out for its skillful handling of these complex international relationships. Strengthening its connection with China doesn’t mean it’s turning its back on the West or other countries in the region. Instead, it shows a practical, future-oriented approach aimed at boosting Azerbaijan’s influence globally and making its economy stronger.

In essence, President Aliyev’s visit to China marked a pivotal moment in articulating a shared vision for the future between two nations whose interests are increasingly aligned. The breadth and depth of the agreements signed reflect not only immediate policy achievements but also a broader convergence of long-term strategic trajectories. For Azerbaijan, the outcomes of this visit translate into enhanced political prestige on the global stage, reinforcing its image as a dynamic and proactive actor within Eurasian affairs. Strengthened ties with China amplify Azerbaijan’s voice in regional and international diplomacy, enabling it to exert greater influence across key multilateral platforms. Furthermore, the agreements provide renewed momentum for Azerbaijan’s ongoing modernization drive, particularly in areas such as digital transformation, sustainable energy, and infrastructure development, where Chinese investment and expertise can serve as a catalyst for accelerated progress. For China, securing Azerbaijan as a strategic partner represents a significant gain within its broader Eurasian engagement strategy, particularly in the context of initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Azerbaijan’s geographic position as a critical hub along the evolving Middle Corridor renders it indispensable to China’s ambitions to diversify and safeguard its trade and energy routes. By deepening its cooperation with Azerbaijan, China strengthens its presence within a rapidly transforming corridor that is becoming ever more central to global commerce and energy dynamics.

Vusal Guliyev is a Sinologist and Policy Analyst specializing in the geopolitical affairs of Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region. He currently works as a Policy Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations and also serves as the Head of the Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group. He is also affiliated with the Topchubashov Center as an Associate Expert, a global policy think tank where he writes extensively on East Asian and Indo-Pacific affairs.

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